Fire ArcaneTier 2
at Card Merchant Regionals
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.8%
avg ELO -3.0 per match
expected value
43.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1345
· median 1345
· range 1345–1345
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1182
Q3 1398
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 21.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 15.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.7% | -4.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 15.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tonoris | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Arcane decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
